Ahagana mu mpera za 2022, ubwinshi bw'imizigo ku isoko ryinshi ryo gutwara abantu buzongera gufata kandi igipimo cy'imizigo kizahagarika kugabanuka.Nyamara, imigendekere yisoko umwaka utaha iracyuzuyemo gushidikanya.Ibiciro byitezwe kugabanuka "hafi yikiguzi gihinduka".Habaye ubwoba bwinshi kuva Ubushinwa bwakuraho imipaka ku cyorezo mu Kuboza.Akazi mu bigo by’ubucuruzi by’uruganda byagabanutse cyane ku cya gatatu mu mpera zUkuboza.Bizatwara amezi agera kuri 3-6 kugirango ibyifuzo byimbere mu gihugu no hanze bishobore gukira kugeza kuri bibiri bya gatatu byurwego rwibanze rwicyorezo.
Kuva igice cya kabiri cya 2022, igipimo cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa cyagabanutse buri gihe.Ifaranga ry’intambara n’intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine byabujije imbaraga zo kugura Uburayi na Amerika, hamwe no gutondeka buhoro buhoro, kandi ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa byagabanutse ku buryo bugaragara.Nk’uko byatangajwe na Descartes Datamyne, ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi muri Amerika, cyatangaje ko ibicuruzwa byaturutse muri Aziya muri Amerika byagabanutseho 21 ku ijana mu Gushyingo kuva mu mwaka ushize bigera kuri 1.324.600 TEU, biva kuri 18% mu Kwakira.
Kuva muri Nzeri, igabanuka ry'umubare w'imizigo ryaragutse.Ibicuruzwa byatumijwe muri Aziya muri Amerika byagabanutse ukwezi kwa kane mu Gushyingo guhera mu mwaka wabanjirije umwaka, ibyo bikaba byerekana ko Amerika idakenewe.Ubushinwa bwagize umuvuduko mwinshi mu gupakira ubutaka, bwagabanutseho 30 ku ijana, ukwezi kwa gatatu gukurikiranye kugabanuka kurenga 10 ku ijana. ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.
Ariko, habaye umuvuduko mwinshi ku isoko ryimizigo riherutse.Ingano yimizigo ya Evergreen Shipping na Yangming Shipping muri Amerika yagarutse muri leta yuzuye.Usibye ingaruka zo koherezwa mbere yumunsi mukuru wimpeshyi, guhora udafungura kumugabane wUbushinwa nurufunguzo.
Isoko ryisi yose ritangiye kwakira igihe gito cyoherejwe, ariko umwaka utaha uzaba umwaka utoroshye.Mugihe ibimenyetso byerekana iherezo ryigabanuka ryibiciro byimizigo byagaragaye, biragoye kumenya intera izagaruka.Umwaka utaha uzagira ingaruka zikomeye ku gipimo cy’ubwikorezi, IMO amabwiriza abiri y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere atangira gukurikizwa, isi yose yibanda ku muhengeri wo kumena ubwato.
Abatwara imizigo minini batangiye gufata ingamba zitandukanye zo guhangana n’igabanuka ry’imizigo.Ubwa mbere, batangiye guhindura imikorere yuburyo bwa kure bwiburasirazuba-Uburayi.Indege zimwe zahisemo kuzenguruka umuyoboro wa Suez hanyuma ugahita werekeza ku Kirwa cya Byiringiro hanyuma ukajya mu Burayi.Ihinduka nkiryo ryongera iminsi 10 mugihe cyurugendo hagati ya Aziya nu Burayi, bizigama imisoro ya Suez kandi bigatuma ingendo zitinda zubahiriza imyuka ihumanya ikirere.Icy'ingenzi cyane, umubare wubwato bukenewe wakwiyongera, mu buryo butaziguye ubushobozi bushya.
1. Ibisabwa bizakomeza kuba bike muri 2023: ibiciro byinyanja bizakomeza kuba bike kandi bihindagurika
"Ikiguzi cy’ibibazo by’imibereho ni ukurya mu gukoresha ingufu z’abaguzi, bigatuma abantu badakenera ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga. Nta kimenyetso cyerekana ko iki kibazo cyakemuka ku isi hose, kandi turateganya ko umubare w’inyanja uzagabanuka."Patrik Berglund yahanuye ati: "Ibyo bivuze ko niba ubukungu bwifashe nabi kurushaho, bishobora kurushaho kuba bibi."
Biravugwa ko sosiyete imwe itwara abantu yavuze ko bigoye guhanura iterambere ry’isoko ryohereza ibicuruzwa mu mwaka utaha.Isoko rya kontineri ryahagaze mu mezi make ashize nyuma yo kugabanuka gukabije kw'ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa n'ibisabwa.Isosiyete yagize ati: "Guteganya ibidukikije muri rusange byabaye ingorabahizi mu gihe hiyongereyeho gushidikanya."
Yagaragaje ibintu byinshi bishobora guteza ingaruka: "Urugero, amakimbirane akomeje kuba mu Burusiya na Ukraine, ingaruka za politiki y’akato, n'imishyikirano y'abakozi ku byambu bya Esipanye na Amerika."Hejuru y'ibyo, hari ibintu bitatu bihangayikishije.
Kugabanuka gukabije kw'ibiciro: Ibiciro bya SCFI byageze mu ntangiriro za Mutarama uyu mwaka, kandi nyuma yo kugabanuka gukabije, igabanuka rusange ni 78% kuva mu ntangiriro za Mutarama.Inzira ya Shanghai-Amajyaruguru y’Uburayi yagabanutseho 86 ku ijana, naho umuhanda wa Shanghai-Espagne na Amerika Trans-Pasifika wagabanutseho 82% ku madolari 1,423 kuri FEU, munsi ya 19 ku ijana ugereranyije n’ikigereranyo cya 2010-2019.
Ibintu birashobora kuba bibi kuri UMWE nabandi batwara.UMWE yiteze ko amafaranga yo gukora azakomeza kuzamuka n’ibiciro by’imizigo kugirango bikomeze kugabanuka uko ifaranga ryiyongera mu mibare ibiri.
Kuruhande rwinjiza, ibiteganijwe kugabanuka kuva Q3 kugeza Q4 bizakomeza ku kigero kimwe kugeza 2023?Bwana ONE yarashubije ati: "Biteganijwe ko igitutu cy'ifaranga giteganijwe."Isosiyete yagabanije amafaranga yinjira mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka w’ingengo y’imari kandi ivuga ko inyungu zikora zirenze kabiri ugereranije n’igice cya mbere n’icya kabiri cy’umwaka ushize.
2. ibiciro byigihe kirekire byamasezerano biri mukibazo: ibiciro byo kohereza bizakomeza guhindagurika kurwego rwo hasi
Byongeye kandi, hamwe n’ibiciro byagabanutse, amasosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa avuga ko amasezerano maremare maremare arimo kuganirwaho kugirango ibiciro biri hasi.Abajijwe niba abakiriya bayo basabye kugabanya ibiciro by’amasezerano, ONE yagize ati: "Igihe amasezerano ari hafi kurangira, UMWE azatangira kuganira ku ivugurura n’abakiriya."
Umusesenguzi wa Kepler Cheuvreux, Anders R.Karlsen yagize ati: "Icyerekezo cy'umwaka utaha ni gito, ibiciro by'amasezerano na byo bizatangira gushyikirana ku rwego rwo hasi kandi amafaranga y’abatwara ibintu azagenda neza."Alphaliner yabanje kubara ko amafaranga y’amasosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa byari biteganijwe ko azagabanuka hagati ya 30% na 70%, hashingiwe ku mibare ibanza yatangajwe n’amasosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa.
Kugabanuka kw'abaguzi ndetse bivuze ko abatwara ubu "bahatanira ingano," nk'uko umuyobozi mukuru wa Xeneta abitangaza.Jørgen Lian, umusesenguzi mukuru ku isoko rya DNB, atangaza ko umurongo wo hasi ku isoko rya kontineri uzageragezwa mu 2023.
Nkuko James Hookham, perezida w’inama y’abatwara ibicuruzwa ku isi abigaragaza, mu isuzuma rye rya buri gihembwe ku isoko ryo kohereza ibicuruzwa muri kontineri, ryashyizwe ahagaragara kuri iki cyumweru: "Kimwe mu bibazo bikomeye bigenda mu 2023 ni uburyo umubare munini w’ibicuruzwa byabo bigabanuka biyemeza kongera kugirana amasezerano. n’ubunini buzashyirwa ku isoko ry’isoko. Biteganijwe ko isoko ry’ibibanza rizagabanuka munsi y’icyorezo cy’ibyorezo mu byumweru biri imbere. "
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-14-2023